Wednesday, October 18, 2017

UCL: 7-0 v. Maribor (A)

Liverpool injected some much needed momentum into their season with one of their biggest wins in years. That it came in the Champions' League against little-heralded Maribor should not detract from a professional, composed performance by a team that deserved a solid win after toiling fruitlessly for a few weeks.

While satisfying, the lopsided win against Maribor also illustrates the randomness that comes with converting chances to goals. Maribor did have a couple of presentable chances, but unlike Burnley, Newcastle or Spartak, they didn't make the best use of them. In contrast, though the gap in the expected goals metric was large (close to 4 goals in Liverpool's favour), the previous games against aforementioned opponents also saw Liverpool with a healthy xG gap (at least 2 goals or more) yet they still found themselves frustrated by eventual draws. Thus one note of caution is that we should not delude ourselves into thinking that such 'poor' finishing won't necessarily persist, though hopefully there'll be a revision to the mean in due course.

If anything, the result is likely to prompt teams to try even harder to park the bus against Liverpool in upcoming games. Maribor took a relatively open approach to the game, commiting players up front more liberally as well as suicidally attempting to pass their way out of their penalty area. Unless you're Barcelona, Madrid or Man City, that's generally not a good idea: it allowed Liverpool to win the ball often in advanced areas and counterattack with much of the Maribor formation already out of a defensive posture. It's unlikely that teams (with the exception of Spurs who also favour a high line in this coming Sunday's game) will be tempted by the same approach. Even Maribor, scheduled to face Liverpool at Anfield next week, will probably not fancy a repeat of those tactics.

The next few weeks will show whether Liverpool's luck in front of goal has indeed changed for the better, but yesterday's game was certainly a morale booster for our much-maligned frontline. It also showed that we have a strong bench: Milner and Alexander-Arnold put in solid performances when starting for the first time in several games, as did Sturridge and Oxlade-Chamberlain when they came on in the second half. That in itself is a considerable improvement over previous seasons.

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